The value in a computer today (and the accompanying revenues & profits) resides in the software. Tomorrow’s mobility industry will be increasingly shared and driverless. Shared vehicles means no attachment to the vehicle (like using a taxi today). Mobility on demand will be based on technology and the ability of the vehicle to get the user from point A to point B will be software driven. The shell will be of relatively little value. Will the Bosches, Continentals and Googles of this world grow in importance as the relative value of their contributions increases? Will Ford, GM provide the “shell” and become fleet service mobility providers? The acquisitions, mergers and deals being announced by some of the key players in the automotive space would indicate that in ten years, the transportation industry and the stakeholders will likely be very different from those who play in that sandbox today.
No longer will a major player in the auto industry need to be geographically located near Detroit as software can be developed and delivered anywhere.
And all these changes will have an impact on what shares you want to own and for how long. Wall Street is already picking winners and losers.